Coconino County
Arizona — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Coconino County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.2, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $131M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 44.38 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $29M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 8.20 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Medium | 5.52 / yr | $309K |
| Riverine Flood | High | 8.04 / yr | $86M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.47 / yr | $600K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $103K |
| Hail | Low | 0.21 / yr | $296K |
| Drought | Very Low | 96.46 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.81 / yr | $296K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $101K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Coconino County?
Coconino County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Coconino County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $5M EAL), Wildfire (High, $29M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Coconino County compare to other Arizona counties?
Coconino County ranks #4 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Coconino County's $131M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.