Mesa County
Colorado — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Mesa County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.1, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 2.96 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very High | 51.87 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.17 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $22M |
| Drought | Medium | 91.86 / yr | $656K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 25.10 / yr | $123K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.33 / yr | $568K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.02 / yr | $445K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $78K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $199K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $81K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mesa County?
Mesa County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mesa County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mesa County compare to other Colorado counties?
Mesa County ranks #13 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mesa County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.