Hurricane Risk in the US: How FEMA Scores It and How to Prepare

Written by Dvir · Data: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated August 4, 2026

Hurricanes are the most expensive natural disasters in American history. Katrina (2005), Harvey (2017), Ian (2022), and Helene (2024) each caused tens of billions of dollars in damage, and a single landfall can generate more insured loss than a decade of tornadoes. In FEMA’s National Risk Index, hurricane risk (hazard code HRCN) accounts for roughly $12.5 billion in expected annual loss nationally — and unlike most hazards, that loss is heavily concentrated in a narrow coastal band.

What counts as hurricane risk

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, but the NRI’s hurricane hazard covers the whole destructive package a tropical system delivers: extreme wind, torrential rain, and — most lethal of all — storm surge, the dome of seawater a storm pushes ashore. Surge, not wind, causes most hurricane deaths and much of the catastrophic property loss near the coast. Inland, the biggest killer is freshwater flooding from rainfall, which is why hurricane damage routinely reaches hundreds of miles from landfall (the NRI books much of that rainfall flooding under its separate riverine-flood hazard).

Hurricane season runs June through November in the Atlantic, peaking from mid-August to mid-October. The Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast Atlantic coast take most landfalls, but the Northeast is not exempt — Sandy (2012) remains one of the costliest US storms ever, and New England has been hit by major hurricanes before.

How the NRI measures it

For each county, FEMA combines three things: exposure (the value of buildings, people, and agriculture in the hurricane-prone area), annualized frequency (how often hurricane conditions historically affect the county, from National Hurricane Center track data), and historic loss ratio (the share of exposed value a typical event destroys). Multiplied together, they yield the county’s hurricane Expected Annual Loss, which is then scored 0–100 relative to every other county.

Note what this means: a huge metro that sees a hurricane once a decade can outscore a rural coastal county hit far more often, because there is simply more value in harm’s way. Frequency alone is not risk.

Where the risk concentrates

In the current dataset (NRI v1.20), 2,230 counties record measurable hurricane risk, but the top of the list is unambiguous. Harris County, Texas (Houston) leads the nation with a hurricane score of 100 and roughly $458 million in expected annual loss. Florida dominates the rest of the top tier: Miami-Dade (~$331M EAL), Palm Beach (~$287M), Lee County (~$300M — ground zero for Ian in 2022), and Broward (~$280M). Louisiana’s coastal parishes, coastal Texas, and the Carolinas fill out the highest ratings.

The pattern to notice: every one of these places pairs frequent tropical activity with enormous, still-growing coastal development. Hurricane risk is rising not mainly because storms are more frequent, but because more value sits in their path every year — and because warmer water lets storms intensify faster and carry more rain.

How to read your county’s score

If your county rates High or Very High for hurricanes, the practical questions are: Are you in a storm-surge evacuation zone (check your county emergency management office’s maps — these are different from FEMA flood maps)? Is your home built to modern wind code? Florida’s post-Andrew building codes measurably reduce losses. Do you carry flood insurance? Standard homeowners policies exclude flood damage, including hurricane storm surge — that requires a separate NFIP or private flood policy, with a typical 30-day waiting period.

A Medium rating in an inland county usually reflects rainfall and wind from decaying storms — think power outages and flooded creeks rather than surge.

What actually reduces the risk

  • Know your evacuation zone before the season starts. Surge zones (A, B, C…) determine who must leave. Most people who die in surge were in a zone told to evacuate.
  • Protect the openings. Once wind breaches a window or garage door, internal pressure can fail the roof. Rated shutters or plywood on windows and a braced garage door are the highest-value structural upgrades.
  • Roof connections matter most. Hurricane straps/clips tying roof to walls are cheap during a re-roof and dramatically improve survival; the FORTIFIED standard is the benchmark and earns insurance discounts in many coastal states.
  • Buy flood insurance even outside the mapped floodplain. A large share of hurricane flood claims come from properties outside high-risk flood zones.
  • Prepare for the aftermath, not just the storm. Water, food, medication, cash, and fuel for 7+ days; grid restoration after a major landfall can take weeks. Never run a generator indoors or near openings — carbon-monoxide poisoning is a leading post-storm killer.

The storms that changed American building codes

Hurricane policy in the US is written in the aftermath of specific storms, and each of the big ones left a different mark.

Hurricane Andrew (1992) hit south Miami-Dade as a compact, extremely intense storm and destroyed tens of thousands of homes. The post-storm damage surveys were damning: much of the destruction traced to poor construction and lax enforcement rather than to wind no building could survive. Florida’s response — eventually the statewide Florida Building Code, with impact-rated openings, engineered roof connections, and third-party inspection — is the clearest case in American history of a disaster measurably improving the housing stock. Homes built to post-Andrew code perform visibly better in every subsequent Florida landfall.

Hurricane Katrina (2005) was a levee and evacuation failure as much as a wind event. Storm surge overwhelmed and breached New Orleans’ flood protection system, and most of the death toll came from water, not wind. It reshaped the Army Corps’ approach to the region’s flood defenses, drove a national rethink of evacuation planning for people without cars, and remains the benchmark for how badly a surge event can go.

Hurricane Sandy (2012) proved the Northeast is not exempt. A large, post-tropical system pushed surge into New York Harbor at high tide, flooding subway tunnels, substations, and hundreds of thousands of homes across New York and New Jersey. It moved coastal flood-map revisions, hospital and utility hardening, and elevation requirements up the agenda for an entire region that had assumed hurricanes were a Gulf problem.

Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Hurricane Helene (2024) made the same point from opposite ends of the country: the rainfall from a tropical system can be more destructive than its wind, and hundreds of miles from the coast. Harvey’s stalled rainfall flooded Houston; Helene’s rainfall destroyed river towns in the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane Ian (2022) hit southwest Florida with catastrophic surge in Lee County, and the post-storm surveys again split the housing stock cleanly: newer construction on properly elevated foundations largely survived; older slab-on-grade housing at low elevation did not.

Season, timing, and the geography of exposure

The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, but the risk is not spread evenly across it. Roughly the middle of August through the middle of October accounts for the large majority of major-hurricane activity, with the statistical peak around September 10. Early-season storms tend to be weaker and wetter; the intense, rapidly intensifying landfalls cluster in the peak weeks when ocean heat content is highest.

The geographic pattern in the National Risk Index follows exposure as much as frequency:

  • Southeast Florida and the Gulf Coast carry the highest expected annual losses — frequent activity plus dense, high-value coastal development.
  • Coastal Texas and Louisiana combine landfall frequency with sprawling metro exposure and low elevation.
  • The Carolinas and Georgia coast see both direct landfalls and severe inland rainfall flooding.
  • The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast rate lower on frequency but very high on consequence: less-hardened building stock, dense infrastructure at sea level, and populations with little evacuation experience.
  • Inland counties hundreds of miles from any coast carry real hurricane-related risk from rainfall and decaying wind fields — most of which the index books under its separate flood and wind hazards.

Two trends push expected losses up regardless of how many storms form in a given year: coastal property value keeps growing, and warmer ocean water supports faster intensification, which compresses the time available to evacuate.

Structural work that changes the outcome

Wind damage to houses follows a predictable failure chain — an opening fails, internal pressure spikes, the roof deck or the roof-to-wall connection lets go, and the building unzips. Mitigation works by breaking that chain as early as possible.

  • Protect every opening. Impact-rated windows and doors, or tested shutters, are the first line. Plywood cut and pre-drilled ahead of the season is a legitimate budget version; taping windows does nothing.
  • Brace or replace the garage door. It is the largest opening in most houses and a common initial failure point. Wind-rated doors and brace kits are among the cheapest meaningful upgrades.
  • Tie the roof to the walls. Hurricane straps or clips connecting rafters/trusses to the top plate are inexpensive during re-roofing and enormously effective. In older homes they can often be retrofitted from inside the attic.
  • Seal the roof deck. A sealed deck — taped seams or a fully adhered underlayment beneath the shingles — keeps water out even after the covering blows off. Most hurricane damage to interiors is water through a compromised roof, not the roof leaving entirely.
  • Ring-shank nails and proper deck attachment. Re-nailing the roof deck to modern spacing during a re-roof costs little and raises the wind threshold substantially.
  • Build or retrofit to FORTIFIED. The IBHS FORTIFIED standard packages these measures into a verified designation, and several Gulf and Atlantic states offer insurance discounts or grant programs (Alabama’s and Louisiana’s are the best known) that pay a large share of the cost.
  • Elevation, for surge exposure. In surge zones, the finished floor height relative to the base flood elevation is the variable that decides whether a home is a cleanup or a total loss. Elevation is expensive but is what FEMA mitigation grants exist to fund.

Insurance: three separate problems

Hurricane coverage in the US is fragmented, and the gaps are where households get ruined.

  • Wind is usually covered — with a special deductible. Coastal policies commonly carry a separate hurricane or named-storm deductible expressed as a percentage of the dwelling limit (often 2–5%), not a flat dollar amount. On a $400,000 home, a 5% deductible is $20,000 out of pocket before the policy pays anything. Know your percentage before the season.
  • In some states wind is excluded entirely from the homeowners policy and must be bought separately, through a state wind pool or an endorsement.
  • Flood — including storm surge — is never covered by a homeowners policy. It requires an NFIP or private flood policy, and NFIP coverage generally takes effect 30 days after purchase. Once a storm is named and in the basin, insurers impose binding moratoriums and you cannot buy anything.
  • Check your limits annually. Post-disaster construction cost spikes are routine; rebuild costs after a major landfall regularly exceed pre-storm dwelling limits. Extended replacement cost and ordinance or law coverage (which pays for bringing a rebuild up to current code) are the endorsements people wish they had bought.
  • Additional living expense. If the area is uninhabitable for months, ALE coverage is what pays for the rental. Confirm the limit and the time cap.
  • Document before the season. Video every room and the exterior, save it off-site, and keep policy numbers accessible without power.

Before, during, and after

Before the season. Find your storm surge evacuation zone through your county emergency management office — these are not the same as FEMA flood maps and are the ones that decide whether you must leave. Plan a destination inland and a route, and assume fuel and hotels vanish quickly. Assemble supplies for at least a week: water, non-perishable food, medications, cash, phone batteries, and paper copies of documents. Trim trees and secure anything in the yard that can become a projectile.

As a storm approaches. Follow the official forecast rather than a single model run, and pay attention to the surge forecast separately from the category — Sandy and Ike both caused catastrophic surge without extreme wind categories. Evacuate early if you are told to; the roads fail before the storm arrives. If you are staying, fill the bathtub, charge everything, freeze water containers, and move to an interior room away from windows during the strongest winds. The calm of an eye passing overhead is not the end of the storm.

After. Assume every downed line is live and every road may be washed out. Never run a generator indoors, in a garage, or near windows — carbon monoxide poisoning kills people after nearly every major landfall. Photograph all damage before cleanup, contact your insurer immediately, and be wary of unlicensed contractors demanding cash up front. Boil-water notices, sewage in floodwater, and heat without air conditioning are the ordinary aftermath; plan for weeks, not days, of degraded services.

Sources

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