Bay County
Michigan — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Bay County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.2, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $38M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 10.84 / yr | $626K |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.22 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.89 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.03 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $21M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $148K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.89 / yr | $297K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $435K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $51K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $35K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $60 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bay County?
Bay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $626K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bay County compare to other Michigan counties?
Bay County ranks #14 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bay County's $38M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.