Middlesex County

New Jersey — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

High

Composite Risk Score

97.8

National percentile: 98th

Middlesex County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.8, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $282M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $282M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 863K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Strong Wind
Very High $14M/yr
Winter Weather
Very High $2M/yr
Ice Storm
Very High $4M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Strong Wind Very High 6.95 / yr $14M
Winter Weather Very High 10.59 / yr $2M
Ice Storm Very High 1.04 / yr $4M
Riverine Flood High 3.18 / yr $197M
Heat Wave Medium 7.48 / yr $8M
Earthquake Medium 0.00 / yr $20M
Tornado High 0.12 / yr $10M
Cold Wave High 0.84 / yr $10M
Hurricane Medium 0.11 / yr $12M
Coastal Flood High 3.76 / yr $3M
Lightning Medium 33.56 / yr $743K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr $376K
Drought Medium 3.04 / yr $655K
Landslide Low 0.10 / yr $8K
Hail Low 2.41 / yr $181K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Middlesex County?

Middlesex County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.8 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Middlesex County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $14M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Middlesex County compare to other New Jersey counties?

Middlesex County ranks #2 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Middlesex County's $282M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.