Middlesex County
New Jersey — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Middlesex County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.8, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $282M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 6.95 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.59 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.04 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.18 / yr | $197M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.48 / yr | $8M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $20M |
| Tornado | High | 0.12 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.84 / yr | $10M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $12M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 3.76 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 33.56 / yr | $743K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $376K |
| Drought | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $655K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.10 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Low | 2.41 / yr | $181K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Middlesex County?
Middlesex County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.8 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Middlesex County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $14M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Middlesex County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Middlesex County ranks #2 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Middlesex County's $282M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.