Josephine County

Oregon — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Medium

Composite Risk Score

90.2

National percentile: 90th

Josephine County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.2, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $70M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $70M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 88K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Wildfire
High $23M/yr
Earthquake
Medium $12M/yr
Riverine Flood
Medium $32M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire High 0.02 / yr $23M
Earthquake Medium 0.02 / yr $12M
Riverine Flood Medium 0.64 / yr $32M
Heat Wave Medium 7.99 / yr $2M
Landslide Low 3.40 / yr $27K
Winter Weather Medium 21.39 / yr $172K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $301
Lightning Low 5.95 / yr $88K
Hail Very Low 0.11 / yr $53K
Drought Very Low 25.48 / yr $206
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr $6K
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Strong Wind Very Low 0.05 / yr $69K
Tornado Very Low 0.02 / yr $15K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.00 / yr $628
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Josephine County?

Josephine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Josephine County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $23M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $12M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $32M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Josephine County compare to other Oregon counties?

Josephine County ranks #10 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Josephine County's $70M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.