Shelby County
Tennessee — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Shelby County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.4, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $555M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 1.68 / yr | $62M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.51 / yr | $70M |
| Heat Wave | High | 21.74 / yr | $49M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.01 / yr | $215M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.18 / yr | $154M |
| Lightning | High | 59.86 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.82 / yr | $63K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.09 / yr | $818K |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.26 / yr | $290K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.29 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $145K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $350K |
| Drought | Low | 9.33 / yr | $39K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.09 / yr | $33K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $62M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $70M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $49M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Shelby County ranks #1 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $555M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.