Fairfax City
Virginia — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 5th
Fairfax City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.3, 5th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $385K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $372K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.89 / yr | $383K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.46 / yr | $211K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 8.29 / yr | $397K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.79 / yr | $39K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $359K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.05 / yr | $93K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $28K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $671 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.66 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fairfax City?
Fairfax City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 5th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fairfax City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $385K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $372K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $383K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fairfax City compare to other Virginia counties?
Fairfax City ranks #121 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fairfax City's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.