Prince William County
Virginia — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Prince William County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.2, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $69M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.70 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 41.11 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.48 / yr | $597K |
| Strong Wind | High | 7.13 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.43 / yr | $45M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.78 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.25 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.55 / yr | $155K |
| Drought | Low | 1.74 / yr | $274K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.73 / yr | $110K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.36 / yr | $404K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Prince William County?
Prince William County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Prince William County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $597K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Prince William County compare to other Virginia counties?
Prince William County ranks #4 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Prince William County's $69M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.