Stafford County
Virginia — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Stafford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.0, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.34 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.07 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.82 / yr | $24M |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.18 / yr | $865K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.91 / yr | $155K |
| Hail | Low | 3.67 / yr | $600K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $3K |
| Drought | Low | 2.38 / yr | $270K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $93K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $83K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $154K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Stafford County?
Stafford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Stafford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Stafford County compare to other Virginia counties?
Stafford County ranks #18 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Stafford County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.