Frederick County
Maryland — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Frederick County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.2, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $50M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 14.32 / yr | $645K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 37.30 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 4.68 / yr | $32M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.70 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.78 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 3.97 / yr | $898K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.61 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.00 / yr | $151K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.79 / yr | $710K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $66 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frederick County?
Frederick County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Frederick County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $645K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Frederick County compare to other Maryland counties?
Frederick County ranks #6 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frederick County's $50M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.