Toole County

Montana — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

13.0

National percentile: 13th

Toole County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.0, 13th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $4M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 5K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Cold Wave
Medium $2M/yr
Wildfire
Very Low $34K/yr
Winter Weather
Low $39K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Cold Wave Medium 10.51 / yr $2M
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr $34K
Winter Weather Low 22.34 / yr $39K
Drought Low 58.97 / yr $52K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr $60K
Landslide Very Low 0.38 / yr $151
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.18 / yr $2M
Strong Wind Very Low 0.48 / yr $81K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.95 / yr $18K
Lightning Very Low 19.57 / yr $26K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $3
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr $3K
Tornado Very Low 0.04 / yr $10K
Hail Very Low 0.56 / yr $6K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Toole County?

Toole County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 13th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Toole County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $34K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $39K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Toole County compare to other Montana counties?

Toole County ranks #37 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Toole County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.