Orange County
North Carolina — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Orange County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.1, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $50M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 7.42 / yr | $373K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $33M |
| Lightning | High | 47.15 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.84 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.43 / yr | $906K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.57 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.80 / yr | $331K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $744K |
| Drought | Low | 15.49 / yr | $249K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $911 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $691K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $373K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $33M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Orange County ranks #37 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $50M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.