Lancaster County
Pennsylvania — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
Lancaster County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.0, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $170M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 12.27 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.43 / yr | $111M |
| Lightning | High | 36.02 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.08 / yr | $24M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.26 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $10M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.71 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.16 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.34 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.71 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.21 / yr | $471K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.59 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.55 / yr | $8K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $33 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lancaster County?
Lancaster County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lancaster County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $111M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lancaster County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Lancaster County ranks #4 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lancaster County's $170M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.