Ellis County
Texas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Ellis County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.6, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $47M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 7.86 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 16.58 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 55.07 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $805K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $24M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.47 / yr | $106K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.02 / yr | $126K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $92K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $303K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.90 / yr | $447K |
| Drought | Low | 28.59 / yr | $81K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $640 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ellis County?
Ellis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ellis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ellis County compare to other Texas counties?
Ellis County ranks #46 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ellis County's $47M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.