Smith County
Texas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Smith County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.2, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.74 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 59.50 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.84 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.50 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 3.42 / yr | $282K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.29 / yr | $605K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.48 / yr | $996K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $21M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $346K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $832K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.31 / yr | $7K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $637K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.73 / yr | $930K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 22.38 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Smith County?
Smith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Smith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Smith County compare to other Texas counties?
Smith County ranks #38 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Smith County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.