Shelby County
Illinois — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Shelby County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.7, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 1.66 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.35 / yr | $642K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.28 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.74 / yr | $584K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.37 / yr | $85K |
| Hail | Low | 3.04 / yr | $302K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.86 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.94 / yr | $510K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $36K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.76 / yr | $998K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Illinois counties?
Shelby County ranks #56 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.