Lincoln County
Montana — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.3, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.38 / yr | $49K |
| Winter Weather | High | 36.31 / yr | $211K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.50 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $363K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.03 / yr | $37K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.09 / yr | $131K |
| Lightning | Low | 19.97 / yr | $68K |
| Drought | Very Low | 28.52 / yr | $440 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $47K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $18K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $49K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Montana counties?
Lincoln County ranks #10 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.