San Juan County
New Mexico — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
San Juan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.3, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $44M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 108.04 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | High | 50.25 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.65 / yr | $51K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $31M |
| Winter Weather | High | 12.36 / yr | $233K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $285K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.82 / yr | $910K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $30K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $47 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.06 / yr | $133K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $179K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $33K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Juan County?
San Juan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Juan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $5M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $51K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Juan County compare to other New Mexico counties?
San Juan County ranks #3 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Juan County's $44M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.