Jefferson County

Pennsylvania — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Low

Composite Risk Score

57.9

National percentile: 58th

Jefferson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.9, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $14M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 44K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Lightning
High $717K/yr
Winter Weather
Medium $150K/yr
Landslide
Low $11K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Lightning High 37.87 / yr $717K
Winter Weather Medium 16.11 / yr $150K
Landslide Low 0.71 / yr $11K
Riverine Flood Medium 1.96 / yr $11M
Hurricane Low 0.04 / yr $404K
Strong Wind Low 2.26 / yr $369K
Cold Wave Low 3.84 / yr $587K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr $81K
Tornado Low 0.20 / yr $386K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.36 / yr $18K
Hail Very Low 2.00 / yr $43K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr $4K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $14
Heat Wave Very Low 0.47 / yr $22K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Drought Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?

Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $717K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $150K EAL), Landslide (Low, $11K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Jefferson County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?

Jefferson County ranks #47 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.